Posts Tagged ‘estimate’

Huge Anti-Abortion Rally Coming to Civic Center January 21st: Walk for Life West Coast Has a New Starting Location

Monday, January 9th, 2012

The 8th Annual Walk for Life West Coast will start at Civic Center this year.

Will organizers lie about attendance by simply adding 5000 people to the previous year’s estimate as is their custom? We’ll just have to wait and see. Somebody will document the crowd overestimating, but I don’t know if it will be me this year…

Click to expand

All the deets:

“Due to a scheduling conflict, the Walk for Life will be unable to follow its familiar route from Justin Herman Plaza and along San Francisco’s waterfront to Marina Green. Instead, we will be gathering at Civic Center Plaza at 11:00 am for the Info Fair to be followed by the rally at 12:30 pm. At 1:30 we will start walking down Market Street to Justin Herman Plaza. There will be no additional events at Justin Herman Plaza.

We are excited about this new opportunity and believe that this new venue will give us the chance to grow our numbers. More information to come so please sign up for our email blasts to keep informed of these important changes.

HOTEL UPDATE: We have sold out of the rooms at the San Francisco Marriott Fisherman’s Wharf Hotel. We were able to negotiate a discounted rate at the Kabuki Hotel in Japantown (very close to the Cathedral) for $139/night. For further options, gohere.

FLYERS: Color flyers are now availble for download. If you would like to receive copies of the flyers, please send us an email with your address and how many you would like. Help spread the word!

Confirmed speakers include: Lori Hoye, Dr. Vansen Wong, Rev. Clenard Childress and Jacquie Stalnaker.

Once again this year EWTN will be broadcasting the event live via satellite on TV andImmaculate Heart Radio will be broadcasting the event live on the radio.”

(more…)

Photos From the Annual “Walk for Life West Coast” 2011 and Counterprotest in San Francisco

Saturday, January 22nd, 2011

Maybe someday the liars over at Walk For Life West Coast will explain how a march that was only two-thirds the length of last year’s (48 minutes (or so) long in 2010 and 31 minutes long in 2011*) could have 5000 more people.

It’s a miracle!?

It’s worth noting that nobody had a crowd estimate of less than 22K last year and nobody independent from the movement has a an estimate north of 20k this year. I put it at 16k and KGO 7 ABC TV is saying “about 20,000.” The organizers, under enormous pressure to claim ever growing attendance, claim 40,000+. Oh well.

Anyway, here are a few shots from this afternoon, starting with the counters.

The Sisters of Perpetual Indulgence were on hand. I’d say 5000 souls saw this sister and a fellow sister today – they were the focus of the march, particularly on the right side of the river of people going by. Here’s your welcome to San Francisco:

The mise-en-scene:

Tax Church Property and INVESTMENTS! Sure, sounds good to me.

And here’s Frank Chu, in the middle, going on about the Galaxies, as per usual:

And here’s the main body, 16k or so marchers from all over California and beyond:

St. Patrick’s Teens, Sonora, in the hiz-ouse:

Some people from Fowler, CA? Sounds far away:

Yes We Can change:

Yeah BABIES:

“Flower” and “shears”:

A brace from Sacramento:

Save the human babies. Of course! Human babies, that changes everything!

And there you have it.

*We’re talking about at the start here, people. Ferry Plaza was a ghost town by 12:33 PM. If the same number of people showed up as last year, it would have taken until about 12:50 PM for everybody to get going. Obviously, the march will spread out over time and narrow due to the way the course is set up.

Peak Life? Today’s “Walk for Life West Coast” Anti-Abortion Parade Much Smaller Than Last Year’s – Less Than 20,000 Marchers

Saturday, January 22nd, 2011

[UPDATE: Here are some photos. Oh, and Protest Shooter has some video showing way more than “maybe 100″ counter-protesters, which he undercounts for ideological reasons, and showing way less than “40,000″ marchers, which he undercounts for, wait for it, ideological reasons. The fact remains that it took last year’s crowd 48 minutes to clear out but this year’s only 31 minutes.]

Surprise! Today’s Walk for Life West Coast 2011 had a smaller turnout than the past couple years.

How about 16,000 for an estimate of those marching up Embarcadero from the Ferry Building / Justin Herman Plaza area? So, that would be less than half of the officially estimated and very optimistic 35,000 count from last year, or, comparing apples to apples, about two-thirds of last year’s attendance, which was in the 22k, 23k, 24k neighborhood.

Here’s my estimate from last year, complete with my criticism of a ridiculously low number (that some took seriously) from the San Francisco Chronicle. Seems odd that multiple independent sources came in at around the same low-to-middle 20,000s and the organizers were at a pie-in-the sky 35k. Last year’s crowd took 48 minutes to get going, but this year’s took just 31, so you do the math. (And in case there’s any doubt here, crowd counting-wise, like the suitor and his ring in Oh Brother Where Art Thou, I’m bona fide. I got there a couple minutes before noon and I was like Sherman, where are all the white people? How can the organizers claim to not be aware of the smaller crowd this year if it was so obvious to me from the get-go?)

Of course some are wed to the idea of constantly growing numbers:

American Missionary – Great weather in SF west coast walk for life. 40,000+ in attendance.”

Will organizers tell the truth and say that their numbers are down year-over-year or will they simply lie? [UPDATE – KGO 7 ABC TV is saying about 20,000 and as for what the organizers are saying, see below]

As it looked at the start at around 12:02 PM, Saturday, January 22nd, 2011 CE. The much smaller counterprotesting pro-choice march went up Herb Caen Way in parallel – they were gone in 160 seconds or so.

Please remember, WFLWC spinners:

Thou Shalt Not Bear False Witness (Lie)

[UPDATE: That’s it, as of 2:31 PM, Saturday, January 22nd, in the Year of Our Lord 2011, they are going for the lie:

7th Annual Walk for Life
a record breaking success!

At least 40,000 stand up for Life!”

Now, how could it be that a march that took three-quarters of an hour (more or less) to pass by Embarcadero and Broadway in 2010 is smaller than today’s, one that took a half-hour (more or less) to pass by Embarcadero and Broadway?

Saying that there were about 40,000 people marching today isn’t spin, it’s a sin. Appears as if organizer Dolores Meehan is a big fat liar. She might not be aware of the actual numbers precisely, but she’s got to know that the size of the crowd is waaaaaay down this year. What would she say next year if the parade only takes 15 minutes to get out of Ferry Plaza? She’d say 45,000, natch.

I mean, is that cool? Exaggerate more and more each year until nobody believes you? Is that how you roll?

And others are doing their best to prove the Rule of Three:

@bayareacatholic Just heard – an estimated 45-50 thou walkers! #walkforlife

And here’s the official press release. Pure horseshit:

“Record-breaking Turnout for Walk for Life West Coast in San Francisco

SAN FRANCISCO, Jan. 22, 2011 /PRNewswire/ — Tens of thousands of pro-life activists filled Justin Herman Plaza in San Francisco’s downtown and then walked 2.5 miles along the waterfront in a record-breaking turnout for the 7th Annual Walk for Life West Coast.

“We are here to break the bondage of the culture of death,” Walk for Life co-chair Dolores Meehan told the crowd that stretched as far as the eye could see.

“If we care for the baby, we have to care for the mother and father,” said speaker Kathleen Eaton, who funded Birth Choice Clinics in Orange County after her own abortion.

The Walk was held on the 38th anniversary of the U.S. Supreme Court’s Roe v. Wade decision legalizing abortion.

“Today on January 22nd,  I do not honor choice any more, I mourn choice,” said former Planned Parenthood clinic director Abby Johnson, who walked away from her job at a Texas Planned Parenthood clinic on October 6, 2009, after assisting in an ultrasound-guided abortion of a 13-week-old fetus. “You are the new generation of the pro-life movement and I can tell you Planned Parenthood is shaking in their boots.”

“Nothing is too big for God to forgive,” said Mary Poirer, who told the story of her three abortions.

Rev. Brian Walker, who, with his wife Denise, chose to abort their child four months before their wedding, said he deserted his wife when she needed him. “Many years ago there was not a man in the house, there was a male in the house, but there was not a man in the house,” said Walker. “Everybody suffers in the wake of abortion.”

“We’ve lost close to 40 percent of our population to abortion,” said Rev. Denise Walker, founder of Everlasting Light Ministries, referring to the high rate of African American abortions. “We must end this slaughter.”

A densely packed crowd of least 40,000 walked 20 across in a line that stretched over a mile. The Walk route started at Justin Herman Plaza in downtown San Francisco and concluded at Marina Green in sight of Golden Gate Bridge.

Founded in 2005 by a group of San Francisco Bay Area residents, the Walk for Life West Coast’s mission is to change the perceptions of a society that thinks abortion is the answer.

www.walkforlifewc.com]

Minor Bay Area Earthquake of June 6, 2009 – 3.2 on the Richter Scale

Saturday, June 6th, 2009

We certainly could sense it in San Francisco, anyway, but it definitely was smaller than what occurred on March 30, 2009.  No reports of injuries or damage so far.  See the deets below. It felt very small in San Francisco. It felt “short and sharp” to those a mile away from the epicenter in the East Bay. At least one “weenie Texan” transplant “thought it was a five.” And Commenter Jane says “It felt like a big truck drove up the street in Point Richmond.”

Those in the State Building in San Francisco’s Civic Center probably didn’t feel a thing. Mayor Gavin Newsom would probably like to remind you about upgrading your “soft story” structure. And good thing City Attorney Dennis Herrera is Suing  for Seismic Safety Upgrades at the Mirant Power Plant, right?

Gaia is stirring…

 quake

An earthquake occurred at 3:30:56 PM (PDT) on Saturday, June 6, 2009.
The magnitude ? (not yet determined) event occurred 1 km (1 miles) NE of El Cerrito, CA.
The hypocentral depth is 6 km ( 4 miles).


Magnitude 3.2
Time Saturday, June 6, 2009 at 3:30:56 PM (PDT)
Saturday, June 6, 2009 at 22:30:56 (UTC)
Distance from El Cerrito, CA – 1 km (1 miles) NE (37 degrees)
Kensington, CA – 2 km (2 miles) NNW (330 degrees)
East Richmond Heights, CA – 3 km (2 miles) SE (139 degrees)
Berkeley, CA – 6 km (4 miles) NNW (345 degrees)
Oakland, CA – 16 km (10 miles) NNW (339 degrees)
Coordinates 37 deg. 55.5 min. N (37.925N), 122 deg. 17.6 min. W (122.293W)
Depth 6.1 km (3.8 miles)
Location Quality Excellent
Location Quality Parameters Nst= 25, Nph= 25, Dmin=4 km, Rmss=0.1 sec, Erho=0.2 km, Erzz=0.5 km, Gp=39.6 degrees
Event ID# nc40237749
Additional Information map with fault names
Google Earth KML (Requires Google Earth.)
Waveforms

The Rule of Three: Counting People at an International ANSWER March

Monday, March 23rd, 2009

The A.N.S.W.E.R. Coalition organizes a lot of protests here in the Bay Area, as is their right. And they seem to consistently exaggerate the number of souls who participate in their marches, as is their right. O.K. fine. But Saturday’s march down Market Street on the sixth anniversary of the start of the Iraq War had such small numbers compared to the big antiwar marches of 2003 that a person could have easiy tallied up an accurate estimate, if only to see how much the ANSWER Coalition exaggerates.

The “answer” is this: they overestimate by 200%. It’s the Rule of Three, just like in the movie American Pie 2. So, take the “official” estimate of 4000 marchers, divide by three to get 1333 and there you have it. Bingo bango.

Here’s Saturday’s march from above. The 440 or so people marked with white circles represent a third of the total number. (It took about 4 minutes to tally this shot and another ten minutes to tally folks in other photos.) Click to expand:

(Of course lots of people want to give President Barack Obama some time to have a chance to deal with matters, and it was raining, and yada yada yada. The point is that it shouldn’t be so hard to say that the crowd was slightly bigger or smaller than last year – there’s no reason to lie about it, is there? Moving on…)

Kudos to the Socialist Worker, which came a bit closer with an estimate of 2500 people. Perhaps they use the Rule of Two.

Double kudos to local journalist and photographer Josh Wolfe, who came in with “maybe 1000 people” as his honest estimate. Bay City News kept it conservative with “hundreds,” which is literally true, but that word could also suggest 200 or so. Oh well. The San Jose Mercury News played it safe with no estimate at all.

And SFGate / San Francisco Chronicle? Well, they originally went with “massive” as a description of the masses (which was particularly inappropriate given that similar marches six years ago had numbers about 50 times greater), but then pulled back a bit later to just talking about the “crowds.” All of this is ably documented by Robert B. Livingston here on the IndyBay.

Check it, before:

And after:

Originally posted by Mr. Livingston, I presume.

Robert Livingston is also correct in stating that writers Heather Knight and Steve Rubenstein produced a bit that was “well composed, accurate, and captured much of the essence” of the event, so that’s a good thing. It’s not clear who came up with the boner “massive.”

Chronicle Editor-at-Large Phil Bronstein has recently opined on these kinds of issues – here’s a re-hash of a count controversy back in 2003.

Anyway, the correct estimate is 1330 marchers, mas o menos, depending whether you include the cops, the undercover cops, the people who didn’t have the chance to march because they were setting up in Civic Center, the people who left early, the people who arrived late, the marchers without signs who happen to be on the sidewalks, the photographers, the videographers, etc.

The Rule of Three has been tested and proven. Would certain people have more credibility if they didn’t spin so much? Yes, yes they would.

Jessica: “If a guy tells you how many girls he’s hooked up with, it’s not even close to that. You take that number and divide it by three, then you get the real total. OK, so if Kevin is saying it’s been three girls it’s more like one or none.”
Vicky: “None?”
Jessica: “The rule of three. It’s an exact science. Consistent as gravity.”

2009 March of Life West Coast – Tens of Thousands Come to San Francisco

Saturday, January 24th, 2009

Of course any group of protesters naturally wants to believe they are great in number. So when turnout is hard to determine, people tend to get a little optimistic. Now let’s take a look at what the San Francisco Chronicle’s C. W. Nevius has to say about last year’s March for Life West Coast:

“They claim huge numbers for this walk – their estimate last year was 25,000 walkers, although The Chronicle story had the total at 10,000.”

Actually, The Chronicle story had the total for 2008 at at least 10,000.” To wit:

At least 10,000 abortion opponents were bused into the city from all over California, and from outside the state, for a morning rally in Justin Herman Plaza.”

Now, it’s not exactly clear what the reporters actually think in this case – it could be they just punted the issue and focussed on other matters. So it’s fairly weak support for an allegation of excessive International A.N.S.W.E.R-style overcounting.  

This was the vanguard today – it took 40-something minutes for them to all pass through. Click to expand

More photos here.

The people at March for Life West Coast appear to be generally more realistic than the average protest group, anyway. For 2009, they’re claiming more than 30,000, and one booster is saying precisely 32,200.

This number isn’t impossible, but that’s not the point. The point is that C.W. Nevius could have made his point about ignoring this large event without being devius.

Carry on.