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[UPDATE: Luke Thomas of Fog City Journal offers a listing of reactions from many mayoral campaigns.]
[UPDATE II: Feisty TBC Editor-in-Chief Steve Fainaru promises there's more to come:
"We are analyzing and pumping out this information as fast as we can. The package you see today — including San Francisco’s most sophisticated ranked-choice voting simulator, masterminded by news applications developer Shane Shifflett and lead software engineer Aurelio Tinio — was completed around 2 a.m. Monday; it was up on our website at 4 a.m. Next we will bring you information about the controversial pension reform initiatives and the races for district attorney and sheriff. Finally, we will put up the full data set, so people can take their own look and draw their own conclusions."]
Well, here they are, the results of the big The Bay Citizen / University of San Francisco poll on who will be Mayor of San Francisco for the next four years.
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Writing history as it happens:
“When the Board of Supervisors named Lee interim mayor in January, after former Mayor Gavin Newsom was elected lieutenant governor, Lee promised not to run for a full term. But after two of his biggest political supporters — Rose Pak, the powerful Chinatown lobbyist, and former Mayor Willie Brown — led an effort to draft him into the race, Lee changed his mind.”
[I should note that infamous Rose Pak, for some reason, operates as an unregistered lobbyist, apparently, AFAIK.]
Are you surprised by any of these results? I’m not.
But what’s nice about this independent exercise is that it shows you how RCV “works.”
“Exclusive Bay Citizen/USF Poll: Ed Lee Dominating San Francisco Mayor’s Race
SAN FRANCISCO, Oct. 17, 2011 – An exclusive poll conducted by The Bay Citizen and the University of San Francisco (USF) Leo T. McCarthy Center for Public Service and the Common Good shows interim mayor Ed Lee poised to win the November 8 mayor’s race handily. The poll shows Lee with broad support across the city, particularly among Chinese voters.
Lee won 31.2 percent of first-place votes, surpassing his closest challenger, City Attorney Dennis Herrera, who won 8.1 percent. Supervisor John Avalos finished third, with 7.4 percent of first-place votes.
At baycitizen.org, the poll results power a computer simulation that shows how the election may unfold under “ranked-choice voting.” This is the first competitive San Francisco mayor’s race to use the system that asks voters to select their top three candidates in order of preference.
The Bay Citizen simulation allows readers to view how votes are redistributed after candidates are eliminated. It projects Lee the winner if the election were held today.
On Tuesday, October 18 The Bay Citizen and the University of San Francisco will release poll results on the San Francisco District Attorney’s race, the Sheriff’s race, and Propositions C and D, the two pension reform measures on the ballot.
For more information and deeper analysis of the Bay Citizen/USF poll please visit: www.baycitizen.org/data/polls/
The poll results are based on telephone interviews of a random sample of 551 likely San Francisco voters between Oct. 7 and Oct. 13, 2011. The survey was conducted by MAXimum Research, an independent research firm, in English and Cantonese; Spanish was not used because only 1 percent of San Francisco voters request ballot materials in Spanish. Of the respondents, 115 were contacted by cell phone and 436 by landline. After the interviews, the data were weighted to match the demographics of the known likely voting population. The sampling error for findings based on the overall pool of likely voters is +/- 4.2 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level. The margin of error for population subgroups is larger.
About The Bay Citizen
The Bay Citizen is a nonprofit, nonpartisan member-supported news organization that provides in-depth original reporting on Bay Area issues including public policy, education, the arts and cultural affairs, health and science, the environment, and more. The Bay Citizen’s news can be found online at www.baycitizen.org as well as in print in The New York Times Bay Area report on Fridays and Sundays. For more information, please visit www.baycitizen.org.
About the University of San Francisco (USF)
The University of San Francisco is in the heart of one of the most innovative and diverse cities and features a vibrant community of students and faculty who achieve excellence in their fields while building a more humane and just world. University of San Francisco students, faculty, and alumni are involved in the entrepreneurial city of San Francisco and work in all industries, from technology to nonprofits. With dedicated professors and exceptional academic programs to choose from, the university offers undergraduate, graduate, and professional students the knowledge and skills needed to develop into ethical leaders who are sought after in their professions. USF’s diverse student body benefits from direct access to faculty, small class sizes, and a broad array of programs and co-curricular opportunities. Informed by the university’s 156-year-old Jesuit Catholic mission, the USF community ignites students’ passion for social justice and the pursuit of the common good. For more information about the University of San Francisco, please visit www.usfca.edu.
About USF Leo T. McCarthy Center for Public Service and the Common Good
The Leo T. McCarthy Center for Public Service and the Common Good is dedicated to inspiring and equipping students at USF to pursue lives and careers of ethical public service and service to others. The Center provides a non-partisan forum for education, service and research in public programs and policy-making. The McCarthy Center values civic engagement and seeks to promote public interest research that encourages civil discourse and constructive interaction among the great diversity of residents and officials in the Bay Area. The Center strives to accomplish its goals by being transparent, nonpartisan and rigorous in designing its work and products. For more information please visit www.usfca.edu/centers/
Contacts: The Bay Citizen, Keith Meyer, VP Marketing, firstname.lastname@example.org
SOURCE The Bay Citizen
CONTACT: Keith Meyer, VP Marketing of The Bay Citizen, +1-415-852-5100, email@example.com
Web Site: http://www.baycitizen.org”
All the deets, below.
San Francisco Police Sponsor Hate Crimes Symposium
On Thursday October 13, 2011 the San Francisco Police will sponsor a Hate Crimes Symposium. This symposium will be held at the San Francisco LGBT Community Center Rainbow Room located at 1800 Market Street, 2nd Floor from 7:30PM to 9:30PM.
The symposium will be an informational presentation followed by a Q&A format. The event will be held during National Coming Out Week and one day after the anniversary of the death of Matthew Shepard on October 12, 1998. As the Federal Hate Crime Statue “Matthew Shepard and James Byrd, Jr. Hate Crimes Prevention Act of 2009 (18 U.S.C. 249)” was named after Matthew, it’s a poignant time of year to host this discussion.
Agenda of presentation will be:
* Deputy Chief Denise Schmitt to welcome attendees, discuss the Chief’s LGBT Forum and introduce panelists
* US DOJ Attorney SUSAN BADGER to discuss the US DOJ’s role in prosecuting hate crimes
* FBI Special Agent MELISSA PATRICK to discuss the FBI’s role, resources and limitations
* SFDA Asst District Attorney VICTOR HWANG to discuss how cases are prosecuted and why some are kept at the local/State level while others become Federal cases
* SFPD LT. TERESA GRACIE to discuss the police department’s role and how SFPD leverages with the FBI and works cooperatively with them
* SFPD Chief’s LGBT Community Advisory Forum to discuss the importance of crime reporting, resources and support organizations for survivors of hate crimes
* Moderated Q & A from the audience and answers from specific members of the panel or responses from all panel members as appropriate
* Final closing comments from panelists
GOAL OF THE EVENT: To establish the Forum as a publicly known entity with a defined mission of representing the LGBT community City-wide to the SFPD and Chief Suhr directly.
Does Grant Gustin, the new villain on upcoming episodes of Fox TV’s Glee, have a Wikipedia entry yet? I don’t think so.
Anyway, he will soon. Read all about it at TVLine.
Sebastian just might come betwixt Kurt and Blaine starting in Episode 5 of Season 3
Do you remember him playing Baby John last year on Market Street at SHN’s Orpheum Theatre?
He was one of the standouts.
Bon courage, Grant Gustin!
This was the scene the other day at the LGBT Center at a Harvey Milk Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender Democratic Club meeting in support of Community Choice Aggregation.
Here’s a report from KPIX Channel 5 (if you can handle a commercial beforehand.)
Supervisor Ross Mirkarimi, Supervisor David Campos, Carole Migden, Paul Fenn, John Rizzo, Chris Jackson, and Eric Brooks, among others, were all there:
The fight over Proposition 16 is hotting up, certainly.
San Francisco’s Harvey Milk Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender Democratic Club is hosting a Community Choice Aggregation (CCA) Town Hall tonight at the LGBT Center on the corner of Market and Octavia. CCA is:
“a system adopted into law in the states of Massachusetts, Ohio, California, New Jersey and Rhode Island which allows cities and counties to aggregate the buying power of individual customerswithin a defined jurisdiction in order to secure alternative energy supply contracts. Currently, nearly 1 million Americans receive service from CCAs.”
The special guests will be Assembly Bill 117 (2002) author Carole Migden, District 5 Supervisor Ross Mirkarimi, District 9 Supervisor David Campos and San Francisco Bay Guardian Executive Editor Tim Redmond.
STOP the PG$E Power GRAB!
That’s okay! Former State Senator Carole Migden, author of the Community Choice Aggregation legislation, and many others will be at this special Milk Club PAC Forum to help explain these issues and show you how to educate our communities and take DIRECT POLITICAL ACTION!
This event is OPEN to the PUBLIC!
Please invite EVERYONE YOU KNOW to attend this SPECIAL FORUM and STOP PG&E!
Special Guests Include:
Former State Senator Carole Migden, San Francisco
Supervisors David Campos & Ross Mirkarimi, San Francisco
Paul Fenn, John Rizzo, Chris Jackson and Eric Brooks
MILK Club Political VP Linette Peralta Haynes
SF BAY GUARDIAN Editor-in-Chief Tim Redmond
Tom Taylor, Milk Club Environmental Caucus Chair
HISTORY + ACTION = PROGRESS
Harvey Milk Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender Democratic Club
Celebrating 35 Years of Progressive Political Action and Fighting for our Communities
Seems that a few precincts in San Francisco supported Proposition 8, so some bloggers have been going around town with Equality California to canvass those areas in particular. Tomorrow’s focus is in Visitacion Valley. (If you’re not a blogger already, it takes like five minutes to get started.)
Deets below and right here:
Meet all your favorite internet friends in real life and contribute to a great cause!”
As Visi Valley looks on a clear day:
This is a great opportunity to turn just a few hours of easy work into a huge contribution to the fight for equality. Plus it’s a great excuse to meet and mingle with a crowd of awesome online writers, and learn about some of the work being done to restore marriage equality!
What’s a canvass, you ask? We pick neighborhoods that voted majority Yes on 8 to go door to door and talk to people about marriage equality. We start out with a really thorough training and chance to practice, so you’ll learn how to have non-confrontational but productive conversations that will change people’s minds about marriage equality. You’ll go out in teams of two to knock doors for a couple hours, and then we’ll meet up at the end to talk about how it went.
Please come a few minutes early so that we can start on time. After we canvass, we’ll debrief and wrap up by 2:30pm. Bloggers are invited to stick around longer for a special debrief and chance to network with other bloggers.
And of course, your readers and friends are invited to come too — please feel free to post the details on your blog beforehand. The more the merrier!
And you can follow along on Twitter with hashtag #eqwalk.
Just RSVP and let us know if you can make it. We’ll send you the details on when and where to meet. Hope to see you there!
Check out all three right here.
The debut of The Little Mermaid will be featured next month:
See you there!
Deepen your appreciation and knowledge of dance! Learn about the choreographers, dancers, or visiting artists in these salon-style interviews.
Mingle with new friends and SF Ballet dancers at an exclusive hosted cocktail party with wines by Gallo, cocktails featuring Swan’s Neck Vodka, and light hors d’oeuvres. Plus enjoy great music, ambiance, and views of City Hall from the Dress Circle Foyer. Plus, new this season, have the chance to win fabulous prizes from HUGO BOSS, boon hotel + spa, and more at each event.